英文原文：

It's nice to be back at Princeton. I find it difficult to believe that it's been almost 11 years since I departed these halls for Washington. I wrote recently to inquire about the status of my leave from the university, and the letter I got back began, "Regrettably, Princeton receives many more qualified applicants for faculty positions than we can accommodate."

I'll extend my best wishes to the seniors later, but first I want to congratulate the parents and families here. As a parent myself, I know that putting your kid through college these days is no walk in the park. Some years ago I had a colleague who sent three kids through Princeton even though neither he nor his wife attended this university. He and his spouse were very proud of that accomplishment, as they should have been. But my colleague also used to say that, from a financial perspective, the experience was like buying a new Cadillac every year and then driving it off a cliff. I should say that he always added that he would do it all over again in a minute. So, well done, moms, dads, and families.

This is indeed an impressive and appropriate setting for a commencement. I am sure that, from this lectern, any number of distinguished spiritual leaders have ruminated on the lessons of the Ten Commandments. I don't have that kind of confidence, and, anyway, coveting your neighbor's ox or donkey is not the problem it used to be, so I thought I would use my few minutes today to make Ten Suggestions, or maybe just Ten Observations, about the world and your lives after Princeton. Please note, these points have nothing whatsoever to do with interest rates. My qualification for making such suggestions, or observations, besides having kindly been invited to speak today by President Tilghman, is the same as the reason that your obnoxious brother or sister got to go to bed later--I am older than you. All of what follows has been road-tested in real-life situations, but past performance is no guarantee of future results.

1. The poet Robert Burns once said something about the best-laid plans of mice and men ganging aft agley, whatever "agley" means. A more contemporary philosopher, Forrest Gump, said something similar about life and boxes of chocolates and not knowing what you are going to get. They were both right. Life is amazingly unpredictable; any 22-year-old who thinks he or she knows where they will be in 10 years, much less in 30, is simply lacking imagination. Look what happened to me: A dozen years ago I was minding my own business teaching Economics 101 in Alexander Hall and trying to think of good excuses for avoiding faculty meetings. Then I got a phone call... In case you are skeptical of Forrest Gump's insight, here's a concrete suggestion for each of the graduating seniors. Take a few minutes the first chance you get and talk to an alum participating in his or her 25th, or 30th, or 40th reunion--you know, somebody who was near the front of the P-rade. Ask them, back when they were graduating 25, 30, or 40 years ago, where they expected to be today. If you can get them to open up, they will tell you that today they are happy and satisfied in various measures, or not, and their personal stories will be filled with highs and lows and in-betweens. But, I am willing to bet, those life stories will in almost all cases be quite different, in large and small ways, from what they expected when they started out. This is a good thing, not a bad thing; who wants to know the end of a story that's only in its early chapters? Don't be afraid to let the drama play out.

2. Does the fact that our lives are so influenced by chance and seemingly small decisions and actions mean that there is no point to planning, to striving? Not at all. Whatever life may have in store for you, each of you has a grand, lifelong project, and that is the development of yourself as a human being. Your family and friends and your time at Princeton have given you a good start. What will you do with it? Will you keep learning and thinking hard and critically about the most important questions? Will you become an emotionally stronger person, more generous, more loving, more ethical? Will you involve yourself actively and constructively in the world? Many things will happen in your lives, pleasant and not so pleasant, but, paraphrasing a Woodrow Wilson School adage from the time I was here, "Wherever you go, there you are." If you are not happy with yourself, even the loftiest achievements won't bring you much satisfaction.

3. The concept of success leads me to consider so-called meritocracies and their implications. We have been taught that meritocratic institutions and societies are fair. Putting aside the reality that no system, including our own, is really entirely meritocratic, meritocracies may be fairer and more efficient than some alternatives. But fair in an absolute sense? Think about it. A meritocracy is a system in which the people who are the luckiest in their health and genetic endowment; luckiest in terms of family support, encouragement, and, probably, income; luckiest in their educational and career opportunities; and luckiest in so many other ways difficult to enumerate--these are the folks who reap the largest rewards. The only way for even a putative meritocracy to hope to pass ethical muster, to be considered fair, is if those who are the luckiest in all of those respects also have the greatest responsibility to work hard, to contribute to the betterment of the world, and to share their luck with others. As the Gospel of Luke says (and I am sure my rabbi will forgive me for quoting the New Testament in a good cause): "From everyone to whom much has been given, much will be required; and from the one to whom much has been entrusted, even more will be demanded" (Luke 12:48, New Revised Standard Version Bible). Kind of grading on the curve, you might say.

4. Who is worthy of admiration? The admonition from Luke--which is shared by most ethical and philosophical traditions, by the way--helps with this question as well. Those most worthy of admiration are those who have made the best use of their advantages or, alternatively, coped most courageously with their adversities. I think most of us would agree that people who have, say, little formal schooling but labor honestly and diligently to help feed, clothe, and educate their families are deserving of greater respect--and help, if necessary--than many people who are superficially more successful. They're more fun to have a beer with, too. That's all that I know about sociology.

5. Since I have covered what I know about sociology, I might as well say something about political science as well. In regard to politics, I have always liked Lily Tomlin's line, in paraphrase: "I try to be cynical, but I just can't keep up." We all feel that way sometime. Actually, having been in Washington now for almost 11 years, as I mentioned, I feel that way quite a bit. Ultimately, though, cynicism is a poor substitute for critical thought and constructive action. Sure, interests and money and ideology all matter, as you learned in political science. But my experience is that most of our politicians and policymakers are trying to do the right thing, according to their own views and consciences, most of the time. If you think that the bad or indifferent results that too often come out of Washington are due to base motives and bad intentions, you are giving politicians and policymakers way too much credit for being effective. Honest error in the face of complex and possibly intractable problems is a far more important source of bad results than are bad motives. For these reasons, the greatest forces in Washington are ideas, and people prepared to act on those ideas. Public service isn't easy. But, in the end, if you are inclined in that direction, it is a worthy and challenging pursuit.

6. Having taken a stab at sociology and political science, let me wrap up economics while I'm at it. Economics is a highly sophisticated field of thought that is superb at explaining to policymakers precisely why the choices they made in the past were wrong. About the future, not so much. However, careful economic analysis does have one important benefit, which is that it can help kill ideas that are completely logically inconsistent or wildly at variance with the data. This insight covers at least 90 percent of proposed economic policies.

7. I'm not going to tell you that money doesn't matter, because you wouldn't believe me anyway. In fact, for too many people around the world, money is literally a life-or-death proposition. But if you are part of the lucky minority with the ability to choose, remember that money is a means, not an end. A career decision based only on money and not on love of the work or a desire to make a difference is a recipe for unhappiness.

8. Nobody likes to fail but failure is an essential part of life and of learning. If your uniform isn't dirty, you haven't been in the game.

9. I spoke earlier about definitions of personal success in an unpredictable world. I hope that as you develop your own definition of success, you will be able to do so, if you wish, with a close companion on your journey. In making that choice, remember that physical beauty is evolution's way of assuring us that the other person doesn't have too many intestinal parasites. Don't get me wrong, I am all for beauty, romance, and sexual attraction--where would Hollywood and Madison Avenue be without them? But while important, those are not the only things to look for in a partner. The two of you will have a long trip together, I hope, and you will need each other's support and sympathy more times than you can count. Speaking as somebody who has been happily married for 35 years, I can't imagine any choice more consequential for a lifelong journey than the choice of a traveling companion.

10. Call your mom and dad once in a while. A time will come when you will want your own grown-up, busy, hyper-successful children to call you. Also, remember who paid your tuition to Princeton.

Those are my suggestions. They're probably worth exactly what you paid for them. But they come from someone who shares your affection for this great institution and who wishes you the best for the future.

Congratulations, graduates. Give 'em hell.

內容大意：

重返普林斯頓感覺不錯，很難相信，我離開校園赴華盛頓已經11年了。近期我向校方詢問了我的教職問題，回信稱：“很遺憾，普林斯頓收到很多更有才華的學者的求職信，而教職有限?！?/p>

我將在稍后獻上對畢業(yè)生的最美好祝愿，首先我要恭喜在座的家長們。作為父母，我知道這年頭供孩子讀完大學不容易，數(shù)年前，我的一個同事有3個孩子畢業(yè)于普林斯頓，盡管他們夫妻都不畢業(yè)于此，但我的同事常說，從財政角度講，這如同每年買輛卡迪拉克，然后讓車墜崖。他總會補充說，他會毫不猶豫的選擇重新來過。所以，感謝你們的工作，母親們，父親們，及家人們。

這確實是做畢業(yè)典禮演講的合適場合，我認為，在這一講臺上，每個精神導師都受到過“十誡”的教誨，我沒有那樣的信心，而且無論無何，覬覦鄰居的驢牛已不是目前的問題，所以今年前幾分鐘我將提出“十個建議”，或稱為對這個世界和你們畢業(yè)后的生活的十個觀察。請注意，這十點與利率毫無關系。我之所以有資格提出這些建議和或觀察，除了普林斯頓的善意邀請外，理由和你們討厭的哥哥姐姐可以晚睡是一個道理：我比你們更老。以下內容均經受過生活的考驗，但以往表現(xiàn)并不能確保未來的結果。

1、阿甘曾講到人生和巧克力的相似性，你不知道下一塊巧克力的味道。人生確實難以預料，任何一個認為知道其10年后情況的畢業(yè)生，更不同說三十年了，我只能說他或她缺乏想象力。看看我吧，12年前我一心教經濟學入門課程，想著編造什么理由不參加教學會議，結果我接到了那個電話。有過你有機會與畢業(yè)25年、30年或40年的校友交談，并使他們敞開心扉，他們將告訴你，他們對生活中哪些事滿意或不滿意，他們經歷過的高潮和低谷。但我敢打賭，他們的人生故事將與預期相異。這是好事而不是壞事，誰想在故事的開篇就知道結局呢？

2、 是否人生偶然性之大的事實，意味著小的決定和行動無足輕重，不需要規(guī)劃和奮斗呢？當然不是。無論未來人生如何，她將是一個宏大和漫長的項目，是你作為個人 的發(fā)展過程。你的家人、朋友和你在普林斯頓的時光已經為你造就了良好的開端，未來你會如何？你會不斷學習、竭力思索、對至關重要的問題持批判態(tài)度嗎？你會 成為情感上更強大、更大度、更有愛心、更道德的人嗎？你會更積極的、更建設性的參與世事嗎？你的人生會有很多故事，快樂的，及不太快樂的，如果你不為自己 感到快樂，就連最偉大的成就業(yè)也不會讓你感到滿足。

3、 成功的概念促使我考慮所謂的精英主義及其含義。精英是在健康和基因上最幸運的人，他們在家庭支持、鼓勵上，或在收入上也是最幸運的，他們在教育和職業(yè)機遇 上最幸運，他們在很多方面都最幸運，一般人難以復制。一個精英體制是否公平，要看這些精英是否有義務努力工作、致力于建設更好的世界，并與他人分享幸運。

4、誰值得尊重？是那些充分利用其優(yōu)勢，或勇敢面對逆境的人。我想我們會認同，那些雖然接受的正式教育不多，但誠實勞動、勤勉的為家人提供衣食和教育的人，相比更多表面上很成功的人，更值得尊重，和他們喝兩杯是更有趣的事情。

5、 提到政治，憤世嫉俗是批判性思考和建設性行動的更糟糕的替代品。當然，利益、金錢和意識形態(tài)都有影響力，如你在政治課上所學。但我的感受是大部分政界人士 都在尋求做正確的事情，大部分時候，這由他們的觀點和意識決定。在復雜及難于處理的問題上所犯的誠實錯誤，更是糟糕結果的主要原因，而非不良動機。因此， 華盛頓最有影響的力量是觀念和想法，人們基于這些觀念去行動。公共服務并不輕松，如果你選擇了這一道路，那是值得的，并頗具挑戰(zhàn)性。

6、經濟學是頗具詭辯性的思維領域，她在解釋決策者以往所犯錯誤方面顯得很崇高，但在預測未來時，則不僅如此。然而，謹慎的經濟分析確有重要益處，她能去除那些不合邏輯或與數(shù)據(jù)不符的想法，這對90%的經濟政策建議有影響。

7、我不會告訴你們金錢無用，反正你們也不會聽的。事實上，對全球很多人來說，金錢能夠決定生存還是死亡。但如果你屬于那些幸運得有能力進行抉擇的少數(shù)人，請記住，金錢只是途徑，而非最終目標。職業(yè)選擇基于收入、而非熱愛，或做出貢獻的熱情，是日后苦惱的根源。

8、沒有人希望失敗，但失敗是生活和學習的一部分。如果你衣衫整齊，你并沒有進入比賽。

9、 我希望你們能夠發(fā)展自身對成功的定義，在這一過程中，你們能夠選擇一位親密的伴侶。在做出選擇時，要記住外表美只是人類演變的一種方式，它使我們確信對方 沒有腸道寄生蟲。不要誤解我，我也為美麗、浪漫和性所吸引，不然美國影視業(yè)和廣告業(yè)怎么生存下去呢？但盡管重要，這些不是尋找人生伴侶時唯一需要考慮的事 情。你們將共同走過人生旅程，需要對方的支持和關愛。作為已婚35年的人士，我想象不到比選擇人生伴侶更重要的事情。

10、時不時的給父母去個電話。早晚有一天，你希望自己長大成人的、工作繁忙的、超級成功的孩子給你來個電話，再者，請記著誰供養(yǎng)你上的大學。

最后，畢業(yè)生們，給他們點顏色看看。