A Prosperous China Benefits the World
繁榮的中國造福世界

Cui Tiankai, China’s ambassador to the U.S.
中國駐美國大使 崔天凱

The world economy has had an unpleasant start to 2016-global stocks are slumping, oil prices hit a 10-year low, and the values of currencies in emerging markets have been very volatile. Sadly, for no logical reason, China is often used as a scapegoat for current global market fluctuation.
全球經(jīng)濟(jì)2016年開局不利:股市持續(xù)下行,新興市場(chǎng)貨幣動(dòng)蕩,油價(jià)跌至10年新低。令人遺憾的是,中國常常毫無理由地被當(dāng)作此輪全球市場(chǎng)動(dòng)蕩的“替罪羊”。

It is imperative that people are clear about the reality behind the world-wide economic volatility. There are four points that help clarify this phenomenon.
了解市場(chǎng)動(dòng)蕩背后的事實(shí)十分重要,四個(gè)方面值得關(guān)注。

For one, China’s economic growth remains strong and its contribution to the world economy remains impressive. According to the World Bank, between 2009 and 2014 China’s GDP grew at an average annual rate of 8.7%, while average world growth was 2%. In that same period, China was the stimulant behind 30% of global economic growth. In 2015, China was still one of the largest and fastest-growing economies, with a growth rate of 6.9%, and it contributed 25% to global growth.This is in large part because the middle class has been the driving force of consumption in China. According to Credit Suisse ‘s most recent Global Wealth Report, China’s middle class (individuals with wealth between $50,000 and $500,000) now ranks the largest in the world with 109 million members, surpassing the U.S. with 92 million members. According to the Boston Consulting Group, China has by far the most private wealth in Asia, and ranks second only to the U.S. globally. To meet the resulting growing demand, foreign companies are looking to expand into China. For example, Starbucks is planning to open 2,500 stores in China in the next five years-500 a year.
首先,中國經(jīng)濟(jì)仍保持較快增長,是世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的重要支柱。世界銀行數(shù)據(jù)顯示,2009年至2014年,中國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)年均增長8.7%,對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長貢獻(xiàn)率達(dá)30%,而同期全球經(jīng)濟(jì)平均增速僅2%。2015年,中國GDP增速為6.9%,依舊是全球經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模最大、增長最快的經(jīng)濟(jì)體之一,對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長貢獻(xiàn)率達(dá)25%。中國的中產(chǎn)階級(jí)規(guī)模迅速擴(kuò)大,他們成為消費(fèi)的動(dòng)力。根據(jù)瑞士信貸最新《全球財(cái)富報(bào)告》,中國的中產(chǎn)階級(jí)人數(shù)已達(dá)1.09億,超過美國的9200萬人。波士頓咨詢公司新近研究顯示,中國私人財(cái)富總量在亞洲居首,在全球位列第二,僅次于美國。面對(duì)不斷增長的需求,很多外國公司都在謀劃擴(kuò)大在中國的市場(chǎng)份額。不久前,星巴克集團(tuán)宣布未來5年將在中國新設(shè)2500家分店,平均每年增加500家。

The fluctuations in the Chinese stock market have been of great concern to many, and understandably investors were unnerved when the stock market declined 20% in the first month of this year. Undoubtedly, there is room for improvement in market management, but China’s real economy in the long term has not been harmed since the stock-market turmoil began last August.It’s important to remember that China’s stock market is still developing – its value is about 30% of China’s total GDP, compared with 100% in the U.S. For this reason, China’s stock-market ups and downs shouldn’t be taken as reflective of general sentiment about the Chinese economy or its overall performance.
第二,一些人對(duì)中國股市波動(dòng)表示擔(dān)憂。當(dāng)然,股指在今年一月下降20%,引發(fā)擔(dān)憂可以理解,中國股市管理也確有需要進(jìn)一步完善的空間。但從長期看,去年8月以來的中國股市動(dòng)蕩并不會(huì)對(duì)中國實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)造成損害。中國股市尚處于發(fā)展過程中,市值僅占GDP的30%,遠(yuǎn)低于美國的100%。中國股市動(dòng)向并不完全反映實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)或公司業(yè)績,了解這一點(diǎn)很重要。

The depreciation of the yuan has been a favorite focus of the media recently. Major news outlets have implied that the Chinese government has intentionally devalued the yuan to boost exports. This claim is false. While the economic slowdown has contributed, China’s currency depreciation is mainly the result of an exchange-rate reform launched last year to follow international standards and to establish a more flexible system linked to a basket of currencies, thus letting markets play the decisive role. This has nothing to do with boosting exports.The reform worked. Recently the yuan has appreciated significantly against both the U.S. dollar and the basket of currencies, showing its value can rise and fall. As former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers explained in the Washington Post last November, it is incoherent to favor both financial market liberalization in China-with more reliance on market forces-and exchange-rate appreciation.
近期,媒體也很關(guān)注人民幣貶值。不少報(bào)道認(rèn)為,中國政府試圖通過人民幣貶值來刺激出口。這是錯(cuò)誤的。人民幣貶值受到中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增速放緩影響,但更主要的原因是中國政府去年啟動(dòng)了新一輪匯率機(jī)制改革,旨在根據(jù)國際標(biāo)準(zhǔn)建立參考一籃子貨幣的更具彈性的匯率機(jī)制,從而讓市場(chǎng)對(duì)人民幣匯率發(fā)揮決定性作用,這與刺激出口無關(guān)。改革已見成效。近期,人民幣對(duì)美元出現(xiàn)快速升值,對(duì)一籃子貨幣匯率走高,表明人民幣已進(jìn)入有升有降的雙向波動(dòng)軌道。美國前財(cái)長勞倫斯·薩默斯去年11月在《華盛頓郵報(bào)》刊文稱,一方面要求中國推進(jìn)金融自由化改革,讓市場(chǎng)發(fā)揮更大作用,另一方面又期待人民幣持續(xù)升值,這不符合邏輯。

Meanwhile, for commodities, there is still significant demand among Chinese consumers. Between January and November 2015, China imported 112 million tons of grain-an increase of 27.3% from 2014. That included 25% of U.S. beans and 40% of U.S. cotton production. Crude oil imports increased by 8.8%. The downward pressure on oil prices is largely attributable to competition for global market share between traditional oil suppliers and new shale oil producers. The lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil exports has also contributed to lower oil prices.
第三,中國對(duì)大宗商品的需求依然旺盛。2015年1月至11月,中國進(jìn)口糧食1.12億噸,比2014年多27.3%。中國是美國農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的主要買家,進(jìn)口了美國25%的大豆和40%的棉花。2015年全年,中國原油進(jìn)口量增加8.8%。國際油價(jià)走低主要源于傳統(tǒng)石油供給國與新興頁巖油生產(chǎn)國為爭奪國際市場(chǎng)份額競相提高石油產(chǎn)量。對(duì)伊朗石油出口解除制裁也進(jìn)一步加劇了油價(jià)下行壓力。

Structural reforms will bring a brighter future to China’s economy and, consequently, greater opportunity to the world. A large Chinese stimulus package in 2008 played an important role in preventing the meltdown of the world economy, but also led to the serious problem of overcapacity and structural imbalance in the Chinese economy, which has contributed to the current economic slowdown. To sustain growth, China is implementing structural reforms that place greater emphasis on developing an innovation-and-consumption-driven economy. China’s 13th Five-Year Plan lays out five clear development concepts: innovation, coordination, green development, opening-up and inclusiveness.
最后,結(jié)構(gòu)改革將給中國經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來更為光明的前景,為全球經(jīng)濟(jì)提供更多機(jī)會(huì)。2008年金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)后,中國推出大規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計(jì)劃,對(duì)防止全球經(jīng)濟(jì)深度衰退起到了重要作用,但同時(shí)也帶來了嚴(yán)重的產(chǎn)能過剩和結(jié)構(gòu)失衡,成為當(dāng)前中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增速放緩的重要原因之一。為實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展,中國政府決定實(shí)施結(jié)構(gòu)改革,重點(diǎn)發(fā)展創(chuàng)新驅(qū)動(dòng)型和消費(fèi)驅(qū)動(dòng)型經(jīng)濟(jì),并在“十三五”規(guī)劃建議中明確提出創(chuàng)新、協(xié)調(diào)、綠色、開放、共享等五大發(fā)展理念。

Structural reforms are never easy and come with risks. Yet China’s leaders are determined to see them through. China is, in fact, playing a pioneering role in the structural reform that the global economy desperately needs, hence it should be applauded and encouraged.
當(dāng)然,結(jié)構(gòu)改革絕非易事,甚至伴隨各種風(fēng)險(xiǎn),但中國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人決心將改革進(jìn)行到底。全球經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)改革刻不容緩,而事實(shí)上中國已成為改革的先鋒,理應(yīng)得到國際社會(huì)的喝彩和支持。

A prosperous China benefits the world. As the host of the 2016 G-20 summit, China is ready to work with the rest of the world to pool wisdom, advance international economic cooperation and improve global economic governance to achieve strong, sustainable and balanced growth. As the two largest economies in the world, China and the U.S. have an important role to play.
一個(gè)繁榮的中國使世界受益。作為今年二十國集團(tuán)主席國,中國將與其他國家一道,匯集全球智慧,加強(qiáng)國際經(jīng)濟(jì)合作,完善全球經(jīng)濟(jì)治理,共同推動(dòng)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)強(qiáng)勁、可持續(xù)、平衡增長。作為全球最大的兩個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體,中美兩國將在此過程中發(fā)揮重要作用。