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Model: Network's Tiny Tendencies Lead to War or Peace

模型預(yù)測之下的戰(zhàn)爭與和平

Oh what a tangled web we weave.Or so it may seem.Because many social networks eventually evolve into one of just two states.We either all get along.Or an unbridgeable divide develops.And a new mathematical model can predict which it will be, findings laid out in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.[Seth Marvel et al., Continuous-time model of structural balance]

噢，我們織就出了一個多么雜亂無章的社交關(guān)系網(wǎng)。?。∫只蛩旧砭秃軓?fù)雜？因為很多社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)最終都會演變成兩種狀態(tài)的其中一種-我們要么和諧相處，要么彼此之間產(chǎn)生一道不可逾越的鴻溝。一個新的數(shù)學(xué)模型可以預(yù)測出最終狀態(tài)，此項發(fā)現(xiàn)刊登在《美國國家科學(xué)院院刊》上。

Consider a relationship triangle.Arthur and Carl don’t like each other.But Bill is friendly with them both.Bill will probably try to convince Arthur and Carl to get along.But Arthur and Carl are telling Bill that the other guy’s no good.You don’t need to be a math whiz to see that, as time goes on, either everyone will be friends or Bill is going to have to pick a side.

思索一個三角關(guān)系。亞瑟和卡爾彼此不喜歡對方。但比爾跟兩人都挺要好。比爾可能會勸說亞瑟和卡爾，讓他們好好相處。而亞瑟和卡爾都跟比爾說對方的壞話。你不必是個數(shù)學(xué)高手，就可以很容易得出結(jié)論，隨著時間的推移，要么三個人都不要成為朋友，要么比爾就不得不選擇其中一方作為朋友。

Now picture a big network made of these triangles.Which is what scientists did in their computer model.And they found that this theoretical social network produced either global harmony or all-out war, depending on the initial triangles.The model even predicted almost exactly the identities of all the Allied and Axis forces during World War II. So one way to prevent global war may be to forge friendships between enough Arthurs and Carls.

現(xiàn)在構(gòu)想出一個由這些三角關(guān)系組成的大網(wǎng)絡(luò)，這就是科學(xué)家們在電腦模型中建立的網(wǎng)絡(luò)關(guān)系。他們發(fā)現(xiàn)這個假想的社交網(wǎng)不是使全球和平穩(wěn)定，就是會帶來全面戰(zhàn)爭的爆發(fā)，結(jié)果取決于初始的三角關(guān)系。此模型甚至準確地預(yù)測出第二次世界大戰(zhàn)中同盟國和軸心國的特性。所以一個防止全球戰(zhàn)爭的方法也許是加深“亞瑟”們和“卡爾”們之間的友誼吧。

—Karen Hopkin

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