Diversify, Especially If You Don't Know What You Are Doing!
一定要保持多樣化，尤其是在你不知道自己在做什么時(shí)！

In the words of famed e conomist John Maynard Keynes, diversification is insurance against ignorance.?
著名經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家John Maynard Keynes說(shuō)過(guò)多樣化是戰(zhàn)勝無(wú)知的保證。

He believed that risk could actually be reduced by holding fewer investments and getting to know them extraordinarily well.?
他相信少做幾種投資并且非常了解這些投資真的能降低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

Of course, the man was one of the most brilliant financial minds of the past century so this philosophy isn’t sound policy for most investors, especially if they can’t analyze financial statements or don’t know the difference between the Dow Jones Industrial Average and a Dodo.
當(dāng)然他是過(guò)去一個(gè)世紀(jì)中最杰出的金融人才之一，所以這種說(shuō)法對(duì)于大多數(shù)投資者來(lái)說(shuō)聽(tīng)起來(lái)并不是明智的選擇，尤其是有些人并不能分析財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表或不知道道瓊斯工業(yè)平均指數(shù)和Dodo之間差別。

These days, widespread diversification can be had at a fraction of the cost of what was possible even a few decades ago. With index funds, mutual funds, and dividend reinvestment programs, the frictional expenses of owning shares in hundreds of different companies have largely been eliminated or, at the very least, substantially reduced.?
現(xiàn)在即使只賺到幾十年前能賺到的錢(qián)數(shù)你就能利用日益普遍的多樣化的方法。隨著指數(shù)基金、共同基金和股息再投資計(jì)劃的興起，擁有數(shù)百家不同公司股份的摩擦費(fèi)用已經(jīng)被大大消除了，或者至少大幅下降了。

This can help protect you against permanent loss by spreading your assets out over enough companies that if one or even a few of them go belly-up, you won’t be harmed. ?
這可以保護(hù)你免受不可逆的損失，把你的資產(chǎn)分散到足夠多的公司中，如果其中一家甚至幾家公司破產(chǎn)，你也不會(huì)遭受損失。

In fact, due to a phenomenon is known as the mathematics of diversification, it will probably result in higher overall compounding returns on a risk-adjusted basis.
其實(shí)由于多樣化數(shù)學(xué)現(xiàn)象的存在，很有可能會(huì)在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)調(diào)整的基礎(chǔ)上產(chǎn)生更高的綜合復(fù)利。

One thing you want to watch for is correlation. Specifically, you want to look for uncorrelated risks so that your holdings are constantly offsetting each other to even out economic and business cycles.?
你要注意的就是關(guān)聯(lián)問(wèn)題，具體來(lái)說(shuō)就是你想要找到?jīng)]有關(guān)聯(lián)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，以便你所持的股票總能彼此補(bǔ)償，在經(jīng)濟(jì)和商業(yè)周期內(nèi)持平。

When I first wrote the predecessor to this piece almost fifteen years ago, I warned that it wasn't enough to own thirty different stocks if half of them consisted of Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, U.S. Bank, Fifth Third Bancorp, et cetera, because you may have owned a lot of shares in several different companies but you were not diversified; that a "systematic shock such as massive real estate loan failure could send shockwaves through the banking system, effectively hurting all of your positions", which is precisely what happened during the 2007-2009 collapse.?
差不多在15年前我第一次寫(xiě)下這個(gè)方法的上一個(gè)版本時(shí)就警告過(guò)，如果你持有的股票中有一半是美洲銀行、摩根大通、富國(guó)銀行、美國(guó)合眾銀行、五三銀行這樣的股票的話(huà)，那你擁有30家不同的股票都不夠，因?yàn)槟憧赡茉诓煌墓緭碛写罅抗煞?，但并沒(méi)有做到多樣化，而且像大規(guī)模房地產(chǎn)貸款失敗這樣的系統(tǒng)沖擊會(huì)給整個(gè)銀行系統(tǒng)帶來(lái)沖擊，實(shí)際上你所有的股票都會(huì)遭受損失，2007-2009年金融危機(jī)期間就發(fā)生了這樣的事。

Of course, the stronger firms such as U.S. Bancorp and Wells Fargo & Company did just fine despite a period when they had declined 80% on paper peak-to-trough, especially if you reinvested your dividends and were dollar cost averaging into them; a reminder that it's often better to focus on strength first and foremost.?
當(dāng)然美國(guó)合眾銀行和富國(guó)銀行這樣更強(qiáng)一些的公司，也有過(guò)從表面上看從高峰期到低谷期下跌了80%的時(shí)期。但尤其是當(dāng)你要重新投資股利并按購(gòu)入證券的美元價(jià)格平均計(jì)算時(shí)，它們確實(shí)是不錯(cuò)的選擇。還要提醒你一下，最好首要關(guān)注一下公司實(shí)力。

Behavioral economics, on the other hand, has proven most people are emotionally incapable of focusing on the underlying business, instead of panicking and liquidating at the least opportune moment.
而另一方面，行為經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)證明，在情感上，大多數(shù)人很難做到只關(guān)注基礎(chǔ)業(yè)務(wù)而不在最不合適時(shí)慌張拋售。

But beside all these, just remember: Stick to Stocks Within Your "Circle of Competence"
但除了這些之外，你只需記得：堅(jiān)持買(mǎi)你“能力范圍內(nèi)”的股票。

In investing, as in life, success is just as much about avoiding mistakes as it is about making intelligent decisions.?
投資就像生活一樣，成功在于盡可能避免犯錯(cuò)，也在于做出明智的決定。

If you are a scientist who works at Pfizer, you are going to have a very strong competitive advantage in determining the relative attractiveness of pharmaceutical stocks compared to someone who works in the oil sector.?
如果你是輝瑞公司的一名科學(xué)家，在確定制藥股票的相對(duì)吸引力方面你就要比石油行業(yè)的人擁有很強(qiáng)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)。

Likewise, a person in the oil sector is going to probably have a much bigger advantage over you in understanding the oil majors than you are.
同樣，石油行業(yè)的人在對(duì)大型石油公司的了解上就比你有更大的優(yōu)勢(shì)。

Peter Lynch was a big proponent of the “invest in what you know” philosophy.?
Peter Lynch就非常支持“投資你所了解的行業(yè)”這一說(shuō)法。

In fact, many of his most successful investments were a result of following his wife and teenage kids around the shopping mall or driving through town eating Dunkin’ Doughnuts.?
其實(shí)他最成功的一些投資都是受了妻子和商場(chǎng)附近青少年的啟發(fā)，或開(kāi)車(chē)橫穿城市去Dunkin’ Doughnuts吃飯時(shí)產(chǎn)生的。

There is a legendary story in old-school value investing circles about a man who became such an expert in American water companies that he literally knew the profit in a tub full of bathwater or the average toilet flush, building a fortune by trading a specific stock. ?
老派價(jià)值投資法中有一個(gè)傳奇的故事，說(shuō)的是一個(gè)人在美國(guó)自來(lái)水公司成為了專(zhuān)家，毫不夸張地說(shuō)他能知道裝滿(mǎn)水的浴缸或普通馬桶刷的利潤(rùn)，他通過(guò)交易一只特定的股票就賺了一大筆錢(qián)。

One caveat: You must be honest with yourself. Just because you worked the counter at Chicken Mary's as a teenager doesn't mean you are automatically going to have an advantage when analyzing a poultry company like Tyson Chicken.?
警告：你必須要對(duì)自己誠(chéng)實(shí)。僅僅是十多歲時(shí)在Chicken Mary's站過(guò)柜臺(tái)并不意味著在分析Tyson Chicken這樣的家禽公司時(shí)你就有優(yōu)勢(shì)了。

A good test is to ask yourself if you know enough about a given industry to take over a business in that field and be successful. If the answer is "yes", you may have found your niche. If not, keep studying.
一個(gè)很好的測(cè)試方法就是問(wèn)問(wèn)自己是否對(duì)某一行業(yè)足夠了解，能在那個(gè)領(lǐng)域接管一家公司還能做得成功。如果答案是肯定的，那你可能發(fā)現(xiàn)了商機(jī)；如果不行那就繼續(xù)學(xué)習(xí)吧。

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翻譯：菲菲