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Vicky Pope responds to critics of computer models for climate

EarthSky

Today, a climate scientist in the U.K. responds to critics of computer modeling. Critics claim that if forecasts of weather just days away are often wrong, how can scientists claim to know what climate will be like 50 years out?

今天，來(lái)自英國(guó)的氣候?qū)W家回應(yīng)了那些質(zhì)疑計(jì)算機(jī)建模的評(píng)論家。那些評(píng)論家聲稱科學(xué)家們連近幾天的天氣都預(yù)報(bào)不準(zhǔn)，怎么能夸下海口說(shuō)知道50年后的天氣情況呢。

Vicky Pope: We can look at the range of possible outcomes. We’re not saying that there is only one possible future if you do particular emissions. We say there’s a range of possible futures, and that range is representative of the uncertainty in the science.

維琦?波普：我們能看到一串可能的結(jié)果。我們并沒(méi)說(shuō)未來(lái)天氣的預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果只有一種可能性。我們會(huì)得到一個(gè)范圍區(qū)間，范圍內(nèi)的波動(dòng)代表了科學(xué)中的不確定因素。

That’s Vicky Pope talking about the range of possible risks of climate change. She heads climate change science for the Hadley Centre of the Met Office, the United Kingdom’s national weather service. The Hadley Centre produces some of the world’s most-used climate models. They crunch numbers that simulate the processes that drive Earth’s climate, like incoming sunlight and the circulation and composition of the ocean and atmosphere.

維琦?波普正在談?wù)摎夂蜃兓L(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估結(jié)果的波動(dòng)范圍。她是英國(guó)國(guó)家氣象局哈德利中心研究氣候科學(xué)的領(lǐng)頭人。哈德利中心研發(fā)出了世界最常用的氣候模型。他們綜合日射日光、海洋和大氣的成分及流通的有關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)，模擬影響地球氣候變化的過(guò)程。

Vicky Pope: The models are based on the laws of physics. So they’re solving the equations represent those laws. We also run the model every day as a weather forecast. We test it that way. And we compare models’ past climate with the observed climate, not just in terms of temperature, but in terms of the physical processes that are important for climate change – like cloud feedbacks, for example.

維琦?波普：這些模型都是以物理定律為基礎(chǔ)建立上。它們實(shí)際在解這些定律的方程。我們每天都會(huì)用該模型預(yù)測(cè)天氣。這樣就可以測(cè)試模型是否準(zhǔn)確。我們把模型提前預(yù)測(cè)好的天氣和實(shí)際觀測(cè)的天氣的情況對(duì)比，對(duì)比的參數(shù)不僅限于溫度，還有那些對(duì)氣候變化至關(guān)重要的物理過(guò)程，比如云反饋?zhàn)饔谩?/div>

Dr. Pope said the computer models aren’t perfect but do the best humanity has for predicting future climate.

波普博士說(shuō)計(jì)算機(jī)模型不是完美的，但為人類預(yù)測(cè)天氣做出最大的努力。

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