人物背景:自金融危機(jī)之后,投行成為美國嚴(yán)格監(jiān)管的行業(yè),而對沖基金則迅速的崛起。Dalio是少數(shù)的成功預(yù)測次貸危機(jī)的經(jīng)紀(jì)人。也因此,現(xiàn)在橋水基金掌管著幾千億美元的資金,甚至包括美國政府的一部分資金,有人曾稱Dalio為美國的隱形財政部長。

Ray Dalio, the sixty-one-year-old founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s biggest hedge fund, is tall and somewhat gaunt, with an expressive, lined face, gray-blue eyes, and longish gray hair that he parts on the left side. When I met him earlier this year at his office, on the outskirts of Westport, Connecticut, he was wearing an open-necked blue shirt, gray corduroy pants, and black leather boots. He looked a bit like an aging member of a British progressive-rock group. After a few pleasantries, he grabbed a thick briefing book and shepherded me into a large conference room, where his firm was holding what he described as its weekly “What’s going on in the world?” meeting.
全球最大的對沖基金——橋水聯(lián)合基金的創(chuàng)建人Ray Dalio是一個高但憔悴的61歲老人,他的臉非常的有線條感,有一對褐色的眼睛,同時略長的頭發(fā)覆蓋了他頭部的左側(cè)。我?guī)啄旰退牧硗庖淮螘嬖谖骺诘慕纪?,他?dāng)時穿著一個開領(lǐng)的黑色T恤,灰色的燈芯絨褲子和黑色的靴子。他看起來有一點像英國的進(jìn)步搖滾團(tuán)隊成員。在一番客套話之后,他拿了一本比較厚的概要書籍,便邀著我進(jìn)了他們很大的會議室,在這個會議室里,他們每周舉行一個叫做“這周世界上發(fā)生了什么”的會議。

Of the fifty or so people present, most were clean-cut men in their twenties or thirties. Dalio sat down near the front of the room. A colleague began describing how the European Central Bank had just bought some Greek bonds from investors at a discount to their face value—a move that the speaker described as a possible precursor to an over-all restructuring of Greece’s vast debts. Dalio interrupted him. He said, “Here’s where you are being imprecise,” and then explained at length what a proper debt restructuring would entail, dismissing the E.C.B.’s move as an exercise in “kicking it down the road.”
在一個坐了大約50人的辦公室里,大多是都是輪廓鮮明的20歲到30歲的人。Ray Dalio坐在了首座。隨即一個同僚就開始講了近期一些歐洲的中央銀行相繼從一些投資人手中打折購買了希臘的債券,這可以被當(dāng)做是歐洲開始重新構(gòu)建希臘的主權(quán)債務(wù)的前奏。隨即Ray Dalio打斷了他,他說這就是演講者說的不明確的地方了,然后他解釋了如果歐洲的央行需要重新構(gòu)建希臘的主權(quán)債務(wù)那么他們需要做些什么,最后得出結(jié)論歐洲央行的這些行為不過是個練罷了。

Dalio is a “macro” investor, which means that he bets mainly on economic trends, such as changes in exchange rates, inflation, and G.D.P. growth. In search of profitable opportunities, Bridgewater buys and sells more than a hundred different financial instruments around the world—from Japanese bonds to copper futures traded in London to Brazilian currency contracts—which explains why it keeps a close eye on Greece. In 2007, Dalio predicted that the housing-and-lending boom would end badly. Later that year, he warned the Bush Administration that many of the world’s largest banks were on the verge of insolvency. In 2008, a disastrous year for many of Bridgewater’s rivals, the firm’s flagship Pure Alpha fund rose in value by nine and a half per cent after accounting for fees. Last year, the Pure Alpha fund rose forty-five per cent, the highest return of any big hedge fund. This year, it is again doing very well.
Ray Dalio是一個宏觀投資者,這意味著他投資經(jīng)濟(jì)趨勢,類似于匯率變化,通貨膨脹和GDP增長。在研究獲利可能性中,橋水基金交易成百上千的金融產(chǎn)品,從日本的債券到倫敦的銅業(yè)市場再到巴西的貨幣期貨,這些宏觀的經(jīng)濟(jì)交易決定了Ray Dalio的基金必須緊盯希臘的變化。在2007年Ray Dalio成功的預(yù)測了次貸繁榮將會結(jié)束并伴隨嚴(yán)重的后果。之后的一年,他警告了布什政府美國的幾個大銀行將很有可能處在資不抵債的邊緣。2008年金融危機(jī)席卷了Ray Dalio的所有競爭對手,公司的旗艦產(chǎn)品PA基金在排除了應(yīng)付的費用后增長了9.5%。去年P(guān)A基金增長了45%,是對沖基金之最。今年,勢頭依舊很好。

The discussion in the conference room moved on to Spain, the United Kingdom, and China, where, during the previous week, the central bank had raised interest rates in an attempt to slow inflation. Dalio said that the Chinese economy was in danger of overheating, and somebody asked how a Chinese slowdown would affect the price of oil and other commodities. Greg Jensen, Bridgewater’s co-chief executive and co-chief investment officer, who is thirty-six, said he thought that even a stuttering China would still grow fast enough to push world commodity prices upward.
隨后討論的重點轉(zhuǎn)移到了西班牙,英國,最后是中國,中國政府在近幾周內(nèi)提高了準(zhǔn)備金利率希望能藉此抑制住通脹。Ray Dalio說中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)正在過熱的邊緣,然后有人提出問題如果中國的增速放緩會對世界的商品價格和原油價格產(chǎn)生怎樣的影響。橋水基金36歲的聯(lián)合CEO兼聯(lián)合投資官Greg Jensen表示即使是一個不穩(wěn)定的中國依舊能夠保證充足的力量來推動全球的物價上漲。

Dalio asked for another opinion. From the back of the room, a young man dressed in a black sweatshirt started saying that a Chinese slowdown could have a big effect on global supply and demand. Dalio cut him off: “Are you going to answer me knowledgeably or are you going to give me a guess?” The young man, whom I will call Jack, said he would hazard an educated guess. “Don’t do that,” Dalio said. He went on, “You have a tendency to do this. . . . We’ve talked about this before.” After an awkward silence, Jack tried to defend himself, saying that he thought he had been asked to give his views. Dalio didn’t let up. Eventually, the young employee said that he would go away and do some careful calculations.
Ray Dalio問是否有其他看法。在會議室的后方,一個穿著黑色毛衣的小伙子表示中國的增長減速必然產(chǎn)生全球供需關(guān)系的變化。Ray Dalio打斷說:你是打算給我個答復(fù)還是讓我猜?這個我可能會愿意叫做Jack的小伙子說:我愿意冒險讓你猜一下。Ray Dalio隨即說你最好不要這樣。小伙子又說你不是傾向于這么做么?我們討論過這個事情。在一段尷尬的寂靜之后,Jack決定捍衛(wèi)自己的說法,他說他覺得自己被問及了有什么看法。但是Ray Dalio并沒有回答他。最后年輕人說那他會去其他地方仔細(xì)計算自己的預(yù)測。

After the meeting, Dalio told me that the exchange had been typical for Bridgewater, where he encourages people to challenge one another’s views, regardless of rank, in what he calls a culture of “radical transparency.” Dalio had no qualms about upbraiding a junior employee in front of me and dozens of his colleagues. When confusions arise, he said, it is important to discuss them openly, even if that involves publicly pointing out people’s mistakes—a process he referred to as “getting in synch.” He added, “I believe that the biggest problem that humanity faces is an ego sensitivity to finding out whether one is right or wrong and identifying what one’s strengths and weaknesses are.”
會后,Dalio告訴我這種意見交換的模式在橋水基金非常常見,他鼓勵人們在這里挑戰(zhàn)其他人的觀點,無論對方是什么級別的人,他認(rèn)為這種在橋水基金里的文化叫做“極端透明化”。Dalio對于年輕人當(dāng)著自己和同僚的面激怒一位老員工并沒有什么顧慮。當(dāng)疑惑產(chǎn)生的時候,他相信完全公開的討論是消除疑惑的最好辦法,即使這意味著需要當(dāng)眾指出某些人的錯誤,只有這樣才能達(dá)成新的共識。他補(bǔ)充說他相信人類最大問題在于一種自私的情感去發(fā)現(xiàn)誰是對的誰是錯的或者說明確一個人的長處和短處各是什么。

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