The Chinese Economy Is Still Full of Power
中國經(jīng)濟(jì)動(dòng)力十足

Liu Xiaoming, Chinese ambassador to the UK
中國駐英國大使 劉曉明

A glass is filled halfway with water. Pessimists would say it’s half empty, while optimists would say it’s half full. The same is true when it comes to the Chinese economy. Quite a few pessimists have been forecasting doom and gloom since the beginning of the year. However, they have failed to see the country’s resilience and the new driving forces that have emerged.
桌上放著半杯水,悲觀者看是半空,樂觀者看則是半滿。對(duì)于中國經(jīng)濟(jì),悲觀者和樂觀者持有完全不同的看法。今年初以來,出現(xiàn)不少悲觀的論調(diào),看空唱衰中國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展前景,這完全忽視了中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的韌性和新動(dòng)力。

In fact, the recent moderation in China’s growth is the anticipated result of reform measures and regulation. This is therefore the “new normal”: we are seeing slower yet better quality growth helped along by proactive and deeper reforms. Of course, China’s growth rate could easily have exceeded 7 per cent if the energy- and- pollution-intensive industries had been given free rein, or if massive stimulus measures had been applied.China, however, chose not to opt for this kind of unsustainable growth – because it would come with a huge cost and would sacrifice the long-term development of China and the world.Instead, China has chosen to focus on the following five key areas: addressing excess capacity, downsizing property inventories, expanding effective supply, helping enterprises reduce cost and guarding against financial risks. This approach, like losing weight, won’t be without its discomforts or pain. But just as perseverance will see one through a diet – to less fat, stronger muscles and a healthier body – so it is with the Chinese economy.
首先,中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增速適當(dāng)放緩是改革調(diào)控的預(yù)期結(jié)果。中國經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)入新常態(tài),速度放慢是為了提高質(zhì)量,是主動(dòng)深化改革的結(jié)果。如果我們聽任高能耗、高污染的產(chǎn)能繼續(xù)擴(kuò)張,或者采取大規(guī)模刺激手段,增長(zhǎng)數(shù)字完全可能超過7%,甚至更高。但是,中國沒有選擇這種不可持續(xù)的增長(zhǎng),因?yàn)檫@必將付出巨大代價(jià),不利于中國和世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)發(fā)展。因此,中國將今年經(jīng)濟(jì)的重點(diǎn)放在了化解過剩產(chǎn)能,減少房地產(chǎn)庫存,擴(kuò)大有效供給,幫助企業(yè)降低成本和防范化解金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)五個(gè)方面。這個(gè)過程猶如減肥,過程不會(huì)舒適,甚至?xí)型纯?,但只要?jiān)持,去掉了贅肉,增加了肌肉,身體就會(huì)更加健康。

Despite the moderation in growth, the fundamentals of the Chinese economy remain strong. While the stock and foreign exchange markets have their own patterns, the key is to look at the bigger picture. It is true that the 6.9 per cent growth in 2015 was the lowest for China in 25 years. But this was achieved by an economy that is 10 trillion dollars in size. The actual increment is equivalent to the yearly GDP of a medium-sized country and it is larger than the amount generated by double-digit growth years ago.In other words, against the background of the sluggish world economy, China remains one of the fastest-growing major economies – and it contributes over one quarter of global growth. Consumption now accounts for two thirds of China’s growth and the service sector now makes up more than half of GDP.China’s solid material foundation, abundant human resources and vast market potential will continue to provide a sound basis and condition for sustained economic growth. The gap between the eastern and western regions, and between the urban and rural areas, indicates ample spaces and untapped potentials for further development. Moreover, the ongoing process of new industrialisation, IT application, urbanisation and agricultural modernisation is generating strong driving forces for growth. China’s fiscal deficit and government debt is also secure and much lower than that of the US, Europe and Japan, leaving enough room for further positive regulation.
第二,中國經(jīng)濟(jì)基本面仍然長(zhǎng)期向好。股市和匯市的波動(dòng)有其自身運(yùn)行規(guī)律,觀察中國經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)鍵要看基本面。2015年中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增速為6.9%,雖然增幅為25年來最小,但這是在10萬億美元高基數(shù)之上的增長(zhǎng),增量相當(dāng)于一個(gè)中等國家全年的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值,比以前兩位數(shù)的增量還要大。這也是在世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩大背景下的增長(zhǎng),在主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體中名列前茅,對(duì)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)貢獻(xiàn)率超過1/4。消費(fèi)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn)率已達(dá)三分之二,服務(wù)業(yè)比重超過一半。中國物質(zhì)基礎(chǔ)雄厚,人力資源豐富,市場(chǎng)空間廣闊,持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)的良好支撐基礎(chǔ)和條件沒有變。中國東西差距、城鄉(xiāng)差距比較大,意味著發(fā)展空間和潛力還相當(dāng)充分。此外,新型工業(yè)化、信息化、城鎮(zhèn)化、農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化同步發(fā)展正創(chuàng)造強(qiáng)勁的增長(zhǎng)動(dòng)能。中國的財(cái)政赤字和政府債務(wù)余額均處于安全線內(nèi),遠(yuǎn)低于美、歐、日等主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體,為下一步積極調(diào)控留下了較大空間。

Going forward, five new engines will drive forward China’s economy. The first engine is the 13th Five-Year Plan. With its five key development concepts – innovation, balanced growth, a green economy, opening up and inclusive development – this Plan will map out the way for China to get over the “middle-income trap” and join the high-income economies.The second engine is supply-side reform. Rather than being a copy of Reaganomics or Thatcherism, China’s supply-side reform is a response to the economic “new normal” in China. Its core mechanism is to replace ineffective and low-end supply with effective and high-end supply, which will increase competitiveness.The third engine is open development. China will continue to improve its domestic business environment in terms of legal, international and business-friendly practices.The fourth engine is China’s active involvement in global economic governance and in providing public goods. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, officially inaugurated last month, is just one example of this.The fifth engine is innovation-driven development. China will optimise the allocation of key resources in order to stimulate innovation, to create new demands and new supply, and to give rise to new businesses.
第三,五大新動(dòng)力將促進(jìn)中國經(jīng)濟(jì)繼續(xù)前行。一是“十三五”規(guī)劃確立了創(chuàng)新、協(xié)調(diào)、綠色、開放、共享五大發(fā)展理念,將引領(lǐng)中國跨躍“中等收入陷阱”,進(jìn)入高收入國家行列。二是“供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革”,這并非里根和撒切爾時(shí)代“供應(yīng)學(xué)派”的翻版,而是針對(duì)中國經(jīng)濟(jì)新常態(tài)提出的改革新理念,其核心是減少無效和低端供給,擴(kuò)大有效和中高端供給,提升競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。三是開放發(fā)展,中國將完善法治化、國際化和便利化的營商環(huán)境。四是積極參與全球經(jīng)濟(jì)治理和公共產(chǎn)品供給。亞投行于今年1月16日正式開業(yè)就是一個(gè)例證。五是創(chuàng)新驅(qū)動(dòng)發(fā)展。中國將通過優(yōu)化要素配置,激發(fā)創(chuàng)新創(chuàng)業(yè)活力,釋放新需求,創(chuàng)造新供給,推動(dòng)新業(yè)態(tài)蓬勃發(fā)展。

Since the financial crisis, China has made an outstanding contribution to global growth. It is widely recognised as the world’s economic powerhouse and has fulfilled its responsibility as a key global player. Make no mistake: that engine is still full of power and will continue to bring opportunities and benefits to the world.“Although Zhou was an ancient state, it had a reform mission.” This line from a 3000-year-old Chinese work, the Classic of Poetry, best portrays the country’s commitment to reform. Today, reform and innovation remain the source of confidence and strength for China. There is every reason to look to a world-embracing China for steady progress and for a promising economic future.
國際金融危機(jī)以來,中國對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn)突出,是名副其實(shí)的動(dòng)力源,體現(xiàn)了大國責(zé)任和擔(dān)當(dāng)。展望未來,中國這輛發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)仍然馬力十足,將為世界各國帶來更多合作機(jī)遇和紅利。大約三千年前,中國文化典籍《詩經(jīng)》寫道:“周雖舊邦,其命維新”。今天,改革和創(chuàng)新依然是我們信心和動(dòng)力的源泉。我們有足夠的理由相信,中國將在擁抱世界的過程中行穩(wěn)致遠(yuǎn),中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展前景依然精彩可期。